Jon Fitch Vs. Thiago “Pitbull” Alves

Key Victories : Fitch (Thiago Alves, Diego Sanchez, Paulo Thiago, Mike Pierce, Ben Saunders, Akihiro Gono, Brock Larson)

Alves (Matt Hughes, Josh Koscheck, Karo Parisyan, Marcus Davis, Chris Lytle, John Alessio)

Forecast : It is a complete an utter travesty that this fight isn’t getting the hype it deserves. In my pound for pound rankings (coming soon), Jon Fitch and Thiago Alves make the top ten. If I play devil’s advocate, the only reasoning I can give for the lack of promotion is that this bout has been postponed multiple times. The UFC could be tiptoeing around this fight just in case it falls through again. In any case, fans should get ready for one of the biggest showdowns this year.

This bout is actually a rematch from the UFC Fight Night card on June 28, 2006. On that night, an upkick and a barrage of punches led to a TKO victory for Fitch. Since that fight, Alves’s vast improvement has garnered him significant victories over Matt Hughes, Josh Koscheck, and Karo Parisyan. A win here could get one of these guys within distance of a rematch with Georges St. Pierre.

Fighting out of San Jose, California, Jon Fitch was a four-year letterman and captain of the Purdue University Wrestling Team. He currently trains at American Kickboxing Academy with Cain Velasquez, Josh Koscheck, Mike Swick, Cung Le, and Josh Thomson. His style consists of Wrestling, Kickboxing, and Guerrilla Jiu Jitsu (black belt).

In many MMA rankings, Fitch is currently listed as the #2 Welterweight in the world. He is an incredible 21-1 in his last twenty-two bouts. His lone loss came to GSP in August 2008. At UFC 111, he tenderized Ben Saunders’s face for three rounds.



Thiago Alves was born in Fortaleza, Brazil. He started training in MMA at the age of seventeen. Training at American Top Team, he is surrounded by guys like Thiago Silva, Jorge Santiago, Mike Brown, and Alessio Sakara. His style is predominantly Muay Thai and BJJ (brown belt).
He is currently ranked on most MMA lists as the #3 Welterweight in the world. After losing to Fitch, Alves went on a seven fight win streak. He was finally stopped at UFC 100 in a Welterweight title bout with GSP.

Keys to Victory  Jon Fitch: There is no secret to what Jon Fitch must do to win and possibly keep his facial features intact. He has to be consistent and successful with his takedowns. Disguising the shot and Alves’s ability to stifle fence clinches will be two major problems facing Fitch come fight night.
On the feet, Thiago Alves is easily one of the best strikers in the Welterweight division. Alves isn’t dumb either. He knows what Fitch wants to do in this fight. The whole fight will come down to Fitch’s ability to be successful enough on the feet to setup takedowns.

When Fitch shoots in, he needs to catch Alves out in the open. Alves is very strong from the clinch and will be nearly impossible to drag down if pushed against the fence. Fitch has to avoid telegraphing his takedown attempts. He can’t allow himself to get sloppy as the fight wears on. I hope Fitch has been working on defending and countering leg kicks. Alves kicks like a horse in the Kentucky Derby.

Thiago Alves will have the definitive striking advantage. He needs to put together a workmanlike performance on the feet and remain patient. Fitch is as durable a fighter as they come. He can likely take whatever manly violence Alves dishes out. Alves also has to be prepared to defend plenty of takedowns.

In the bout with Josh Koscheck, Koscheck seemingly forgot that he was a wrestler and chose to engage Alves on the feet. Fitch is a more methodical fighter. Expect to see plenty of takedown attempts.

Despite losing to GSP, Alves was active from all positions. That can’t change in this fight. Fitch won’t mind lingering in stalemated positions to grind out a decision. If pushed against the cage, Alves has to keep scoring points with short punches, knees, and elbows. When taken down, he has to land strikes from the bottom and constantly seek out opportunities to scramble and explode back to his feet.

Prediction : On June 28, 2006, Jon Fitch’s hand was raised after his TKO stoppage of a young, up-and-coming Brazilian. On August 7, 2010, that honor will be bestowed upon Thiago Alves. Fitch will really struggle grabbing takedowns. His mediocre striking will be his undoing. Alves will avoid takedowns and take Fitch apart on the feet. A bruised and bloodied Fitch will stare hopelessly down at the canvas as the judges give Alves the victory and his title aspirations.

UFC 117 Breakdowns and Predictions

Expect nothing short of fireworks in perhaps the most stacked MMA card this year. Can Chael Sonnen back up his words and dethrone the pound for pound king? What will be the outcome this time around in the long-awaited Fitch/Alves rematch?

Could the end be near for Matt Hughes? Who will become the new #1 contender for the UFC Heavyweight Championship?

The questions will become answers on Saturday night. I encourage you to read my breakdowns to see why I made the predictions that I made. At the end of the breakdowns, I will have my official picks listed. Thanks for reading. Enjoy the fights!

Anderson “The Spider” Silva Vs. Chael Sonnen

Key:
Silva (Dan Henderson, Rich Franklin, Forrest Griffin, Demian Maia, Patrick Cote, Nate Marquardt, Thales Leites, Chris Leben, Hayato Sakurai, Jeremy Horn, Carlos Newton, James Irvin)

Sonnen (Nate Marquardt, Paulo Filho, Yushin Okami, Dan Miller, Jason Miller, Jason Lambert, Trevor Prangley)

Forecast :
The hype for this bout has far exceeded original expectations. We all have Chael Sonnen to thank for that. For months, he has talked more trash than Quinton Jackson and Rashad Evans combined. Does Sonnen truly believe the things that are coming out of his mouth?
No one knows for sure. I do know one thing though. He truly believes he can beat Anderson Silva. With the right mindset and style, Sonnen makes for a very formidable opponent against the proposed pound for pound king.

While Sonnen attacks his wardrobe, English speaking abilities, and willingness to take fights, Silva sits behind the shadows quietly listening. Will Sonnen’s trash talking throw him off his game?…Or…Will it infuriate him and bring out the Anderson Silva from every fighter’s nightmare? The man who made Forrest Griffin’s punches look like bullets from the matrix. The man who turned Rich Franklin’s nose into a broken, yet straighter version than Owen Wilson’s.

Whatever happens, let’s hope for a great performance and a satisfying finish…Not a regretful Sonnen balled up in the fetal position two minutes in. Well, I guess that would be satisfying for some.

Born in Curitiba, Brazil, Anderson Silva is a black belt in BJJ, Tae Kwon Do, and Judo. He is also a yellow belt in Capoeira. To those accusing Silva for his Michael Jackson Thriller-like antics, Capoeira is an art form that incorporates martial arts, music, and DANCE.

Silva is a member of Team Black House alongside longtime friends, the Nogueira brothers, Lyoto Machida, Paulo Filho, Junior Dos Santos, and Jose Aldo. In twenty-six bouts, fifteen have come by KO. He currently holds the longest active winning streak and the record for the longest winning streak in UFC history. At UFC 112, he severely busted up Demian Maia en route to a lopsided unanimous decision.

Fighting out of Portland, Oregon, Chael Sonnen is an NCAA Division I All-American Wrestler, a two-time University National Champion in Greco-Roman, and a U.S. Olympic team alternate. He trains at Team Quest with fighters like Dan Henderson, Matt Lindland, and Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou. Sonnen is currently on a three fight win streak. At UFC 109, he took a huge upset in impressive fashion over top ranked contender, Nate Marquardt.

Keys to Victory :In a recent interview, Sonnen said, “I think a black belt under the Nogueiras is saying, like, ‘I got a free toy in my Happy Meal’.” Pop quiz time! What do Trevor Prangley, Forrest Griffin, Jeremy Horn, Renato Sobral, Paulo Filho, and Demian Maia all have in common? They have all submitted Chael Sonnen. Horn in particular has submitted Sonnen twice.

People are forgetting Anderson Silva is a black belt in BJJ with an extremely underrated guard game. Silva has the ability to seek out submissions and land devastating elbows from bottom. If taken down, he has to employ this tactic on Sonnen. Don’t remain stagnant and allow Sonnen to impose his will.
On the feet, Silva can be his usual dominant self. He has to be a little more careful to avoid being taken down. Sonnen is leagues above Demian Maia in the wrestling department. Distance and timing will be key in Silva’s avoidance of the takedown.

Silva has to also be careful throwing kicks and especially flying knees. Every kick gives Sonnen an opportunity to catch the leg and land an easy takedown. With his accurate and explosive technique, Silva may be able to avoid getting his leg caught. Flying knees are a completely different story. If he misses or doesn’t rattle Sonnen, he has all but guaranteed himself to be taken down.

Despite showing improved standup, Sonnen needs to strike when needed and be consistent with his takedowns. Silva does a lot of taunting and gesturing in his bouts. Sonnen has to ignore what Silva does and stay with his own gameplan. The one thing Sonnen has going for him in this bout is his ability to snag takedowns from the outside.
Travis Lutter and Nate Marquardt all took Silva down with outside shots. Unless he gets a good body lock, Sonnen should stay away from the clinch area. Silva has the most devastating Muay Thai Plum in the game.

Throughout the bout, Sonnen has to avoid becoming lackadaisical in his approach. He has to count on Silva being there to make him pay for every mistake. On the ground, Sonnen should keep a good base and control Silva’s hips. Silva has long legs and will constantly look for submissions. Sonnen needs to be patient and drag Silva into deep waters with a grinding onslaught of takedowns and ground and pound.

Prediction :Chael Sonnen poses a significant threat stylistically for Anderson Silva. I just don’t see it coming together for him on fight night. Unless he’s been training with Chris Brown, Sonnen has nothing for Silva on the feet. Silva will happily dance around every punch landing three or four of his own in return. Sonnen can definitely take Silva down, but his submission defense may not be enough thwart Silva’s advancements.

All of the trash talk leading up to this showdown is a win-win for Sonnen. His stock has grown regardless of the outcome. Fighters like Dan Hardy and Paul Daley have utilized similar tactics. Their notoriety soared because of their pre-fight antics against bigger named competition. Win, lose, or draw, Chael Sonnen is a smart man.

Look for Sonnen to make things interesting by snagging a takedown or two. He may even steal a round. One mistake will be all that’s needed for Silva to lock up the triangle finish from bottom. After this fight, maybe Sonnen will seek out a Happy Meal?…or at least some submission defense.